XRP climbed more than 45% in Q3 as U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded approximately $307.9 million in inflows. Even with cumulative ETF demand nearing $1.8 billion, the token entered October trading around $1.50 after failing multiple times to push through the $1.70 level. The inflows have therefore not yet translated into a sustained higher price.
The price action indicates that ETF demand has been met by sufficient selling pressure as XRP rises. While buyers continue to provide support, sellers are also supplying tokens into those bids, keeping the market around $1.50 instead of allowing XRP to decisively clear resistance.
Seven-day altcoin inflow transactions on exchanges reportedly reached their highest level since October 2025. CryptoQuant said the increase was widespread across the market rather than being driven by only a handful of large wallets.
An exchange deposit does not necessarily mean that a token will be sold. Still, transfers to exchanges expand the amount of XRP that could potentially become available to sellers. That makes exchange activity an important supply indicator, particularly after XRP gained more than 45% in one quarter. Some holders may choose to take profits near previous highs even as ETF investors continue accumulating.
Fresh buying can be absorbed by this additional supply without immediately forcing XRP lower. At the same time, persistent selling can prevent demand from generating the breakout traders are watching for until the pool of willing sellers begins to shrink. Exchange inventories and broader supply indicators can help explain the market backdrop, but they cannot establish which holders sold during a particular price move.
XRP ETFs registered no net flows on September 29 and 30 after stronger inflows earlier in the month. The two unchanged sessions do not materially alter the quarterly inflow picture, but they highlight how quickly marginal demand can change. Total cumulative inflows also cannot determine whether buyers are currently absorbing each new wave of supply.
$1.54–$1.70 Remains the Key Zone for XRP Bulls
An hourly close above $1.54 is the first technical hurdle identified in the primary report as confirmation of an initial breakout. Clearing that level could leave XRP positioned for an advance of roughly 10% toward $1.70, although that move alone would not demonstrate that the broader supply overhang has disappeared.
XRP has repeatedly failed to hold moves above the mid-$1.50s, with late-September rallies beyond $1.60 eventually fading. The late-August swing high around $1.70 is a more important resistance point. A sustained move above it would indicate that demand is absorbing enough XRP supply to potentially change the existing market structure rather than producing another short-lived rally.
On the downside, the $1.48–$1.50 area is the first support zone to monitor, as it is close to where XRP began October. Losing this region following another rejection could place the recent price base under pressure. Derivatives positioning and leverage may also influence the intensity of future moves, although these indicators do not reveal which spot-market participants are selling.
These price levels offer a framework for assessing XRP’s current market structure without relying on a forecast.
What Could Trigger an XRP Price Break?
A sustained move above $1.54 on an hourly close, followed by continued strength through the mid-$1.50s, would put the late-August high near $1.70 back in focus. Holding above that resistance would indicate that ETF and spot-market demand is absorbing enough of the supply being offered into rallies.
If XRP instead faces another rejection and falls below $1.48–$1.50, it would suggest that sellers remain active despite the presence of fund demand. That would not prove ETF investors are abandoning XRP or reveal the identity of the sellers. It would simply indicate that buying interest has not yet been sufficient to clear available supply at higher prices.
Ripple’s connection to XRP does not change the immediate technical setup. The key question remains whether buyers can absorb the tokens being offered at levels where previous rallies have stalled. Until XRP sustains a move above $1.70, cumulative ETF inflows remain a measure of demand rather than evidence that a breakout is about to occur.
