Bitcoin’s move above its 365-day moving average has drawn fresh attention from technical analysts, although AltcoinPro Research says the cryptocurrency’s ability to remain above its 200-day average is the more important trend signal.
Bitcoin recently climbed through its one-year simple moving average, creating a technical setup that could support a broader advance.
The cryptocurrency crossed the 365-day average, which stood near $80,900, on Sept. 22. It was the first time bitcoin had traded above the measure in 310 days, according to Altcoin Pro founders Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku.
Altcoin Pro reviewed five earlier occasions when bitcoin reclaimed its 365-day average after remaining below it for at least 90 days. In every case, bitcoin was trading higher 12 months later. The subsequent gains ranged from roughly 59% to more than 1,400%, although the biggest move occurred in 2012, when bitcoin was still a relatively young asset.
The analysts stressed that the historical record does not make the latest breakout a guaranteed success. Including shorter periods below the average produced two failed signals: bitcoin declined about 27% within 90 days of the July 2018 breakout and fell roughly 59% after the March 2022 breakout.
Horst said the September move is notable after such a prolonged period below the 365-day average, but added that bitcoin still needs to demonstrate that it can hold the level.
For the longer-term outlook, however, Horst and Zhuleku are placing more weight on the 200-day average.
They said the 365-day indicator is only now catching up with a signal already provided by the 200-day average in mid-August. AltcoinPro calculated the 200-day average at about $70,800, putting bitcoin approximately 19% above that level before its recent 36-hour pullback.
The 365-day average was still declining and remained considerably closer to bitcoin’s market price.
Because moving averages are calculated from historical prices, they respond to market changes at different speeds. A 365-day average adjusts more slowly than a 200-day average, making it less responsive to recent shifts in momentum.
Horst and Zhuleku noted that this lag can be significant in bitcoin’s fast-moving market. The 365-day average reflects price activity from much further back, while the 200-day average reacts to market conditions roughly three months sooner.
Another technical development came on Sept. 8, when bitcoin’s 50-day average moved above its 200-day average, forming the widely followed golden cross. The pattern has produced mixed results historically, however, and has not consistently preceded extended rallies, CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole reported.
AltcoinPro considers the latest golden cross notable because it developed after bitcoin had spent an extended period below the 200-day average rather than near a market peak.
Bitcoin remained below the 200-day measure for 293 days before reclaiming it, according to the analysts. That was shorter than the approximately 436 days it spent below the same average during the 2022-23 bear market.
The next key test could come from bitcoin’s recent pullback. Horst and Zhuleku said traders will be watching whether the decline pushes the cryptocurrency back toward the 200-day moving average.
