Bitcoin has declined only 1.5% in September, historically its weakest month, while remaining on pace for its first quarterly gain in a year despite higher interest rates, elevated oil prices and a stronger dollar.
The cryptocurrency has moved through more than half of September with only a modest pullback, even as several macroeconomic and regulatory developments have created potential headwinds.
That relative stability is being viewed by some market observers as evidence of underlying strength.
Bitcoin gained 25% in August and climbed to around $81,000, prompting expectations that its historically weak September performance could erase a large part of those gains. Since 2013, bitcoin has averaged a loss of roughly 3% during September.
Instead, BTC is down just 1.5% so far this month. With fewer than two weeks left in the quarter, the cryptocurrency remains approximately 32% higher for Q3, putting it on track for its first positive quarterly close since Q3 2025.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $78,000, broadly returning to its level before Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate increase. The move was widely considered unfavorable for crypto and other risk assets.
Yet bitcoin has absorbed a series of negative developments without suffering a major breakdown.
CLARITY Act Failure Has Limited Impact
The Senate on Tuesday failed to advance the Clarity Act after the legislation received only 49 votes, short of the 60 required. Bitcoin briefly slipped below $74,887 before recovering and stabilizing.
The muted reaction suggests that some traders may have already priced in the possibility that the bill would fail to advance.
“What stands out to me is that Bitcoin has hardly budged at all in response to two objectively bad pieces of news. A 25-basis-point hike and the CLARITY Act failing to pass are both headlines that, in a different market environment, would have sent price meaningfully lower. Instead, we got basically nothing,” Mitchell Askew, head of Blockware Intelligence at Blockware, said in an email.
Askew said the limited response to negative news could indicate that sellers are becoming exhausted.
“Anybody who was going to sell bitcoin based on events like these has already sold. They no longer have coins to sell. That is an incredibly positive sign for the medium to long term, and it is exactly what you tend to see in the later stages of a bottoming process,” she said.
The broader macro backdrop has also been challenging.
West Texas Intermediate crude climbed above $106 a barrel Tuesday, reaching a five-month high as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued. The Dollar Index also moved above 100, hitting its highest level in more than a month.
A stronger dollar can tighten financial conditions and create pressure for risk assets, including bitcoin. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan increased its benchmark borrowing rate to its highest level in 31 years.
Higher Rates Not Necessarily Negative
Sygnum Bank argued that rising interest rates and bond yields do not automatically translate into weakness for bitcoin.
Fabian Dori, the firm’s chief investment officer, noted that bitcoin and gold can outperform even as yields rise if investors view higher rates as reflecting concerns about currency debasement or sovereign credit risk.
“It’s not a one-way street. You see yields rising, and at the same time Bitcoin and gold outperforming. If rising rates are an indication of debasement risk and sovereign counterparty risk, then for store of value assets that is actually a positive driver,” Dori said in an email.
For bitcoin, holding above $77,000 despite the combination of higher oil prices, tighter monetary policy, regulatory setbacks and dollar strength has become a central focus for traders.
Joel Kruger, markets strategist at LMAX Group, said resilience during a difficult news cycle could leave bitcoin positioned to respond if conditions improve.
“If the market has been this resilient when the news flow has been challenging, even a modest improvement in macro, geopolitical or regulatory conditions could provide the catalyst for the next major leg higher,” Kruger said.
The regulatory landscape also produced a more positive development later in the week. On Thursday, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced its long-awaited innovation exemption for tokenized securities venues, allowing qualifying platforms to facilitate onchain stock trading under specified conditions.
“The failure to advance the legislation delays a statutory framework, but it does not prevent the SEC and CFTC from continuing to provide guidance under existing authority, leaving an important regulatory pathway open,” Kruger said.
Rate Outlook and Seasonal Risks
Further Fed rate increases remain another potential source of pressure. Markets are pricing in three additional 25-basis-point hikes by April 2027, which would bring the federal funds rate to between 4.50% and 4.75%.
Dori does not view falling rates as a prerequisite for digital assets to outperform.
“I do not fully agree that rates need to fall in order for digital assets to outperform,” he said.
Seasonality, however, remains a potential challenge as bitcoin heads into the next week.
CoinGlass data shows bitcoin has historically declined by an average of 2.5% during the year’s 38th week, with gains recorded only four times.
Historical performance does not guarantee future results. Bitcoin’s seasonal record tends to improve in the final quarter, when it has posted an average gain of 77%, according to CoinDesk data.
