Options Market Shows Continued Bias for Bitcoin Over Ether Despite Trump’s Inaugural Speech Omission
Despite President Donald Trump’s omission of any mention of a strategic bitcoin reserve during his inaugural speech on Monday, options markets continue to display a bullish bias for bitcoin (BTC) relative to ether (ETH).
As of noon Hong Kong Time, BTC call options—offering bullish exposure to bitcoin—were priced higher than ETH calls across various time frames, according to risk reversals tracked by Amberdata. Risk reversals measure the difference in implied volatility between calls and puts, with positive values signaling bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin’s risk reversals show a four to five-point volatility premium for short- and near-term calls over puts. In contrast, ether calls have a more modest volatility premium compared to puts, indicating weaker bullish sentiment for ETH.
The ether-bitcoin ratio, which reflects the relative value of the two cryptocurrencies, has extended its downtrend, hitting a three-year low of 0.03 earlier this week.
The strong preference for BTC is notable, particularly considering that Trump did not address the much-anticipated strategic bitcoin reserve in his speech, despite previous speculation about it. Additionally, a report indicated that GOP congressional priorities did not mention bitcoin or crypto.
Traders on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket now see a 38% chance that Trump will announce a strategic bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office, a decline from nearly 50% the day before.
