Crypto traders had valued Unitree Robotics at more than four times its IPO valuation through a Hyperliquid perpetual contract before the robot maker began trading in Shanghai. However, the company’s actual opening price still came in about 75% above the level implied by the crypto market.
Unitree, a Hangzhou-based manufacturer of humanoid and quadruped robots, started trading Wednesday at 1,100 yuan ($163.12), a 629% premium to its IPO price of 150.8 yuan. The opening trade gave the company a valuation of roughly 445 billion yuan ($66 billion).
Before the listing, Unitree’s synthetic market on Hyperliquid traded between $92 and $94, implying a valuation of around $38 billion, according to Allium.
That meant the stock’s real-world opening valuation was approximately 75% higher than the price established by crypto traders before trading officially began.
The Hyperliquid product is a perpetual futures contract that allows traders to speculate on Unitree’s share price without owning the underlying stock. Created by outside developer xyz.trade using Hyperliquid’s infrastructure, the contract trades around the clock and gave investors an opportunity to take positions ahead of the Shanghai debut.
Crypto Traders Outpaced IPO Expectations
The crypto market was considerably more bullish on Unitree than the company’s IPO pricing. The public offering valued the robot maker at about $9 billion, while the Hyperliquid contract implied a valuation closer to $38 billion.
The crypto contract climbed further once Unitree shares started trading. UNITREE-USDC reached around $121 on Wednesday morning, representing a roughly 20% gain over 24 hours, after briefly rising above $140.
Trading volume reached approximately $64 million, while open interest stood near $29 million.
Unitree marks the second major attempt this summer to use crypto markets to estimate the value of a company before its shares officially begin trading on a traditional exchange.
SpaceX Offered a Different Outcome
SpaceX provided an earlier example of crypto-based pre-IPO price discovery. Before its June listing, perpetual futures on Hyperliquid valued the stock at approximately $170 per share.
When SpaceX began trading, its shares climbed above $176 before ending the session at $161. That closing price was close to the level crypto traders had anticipated ahead of the debut.
The SpaceX perpetual market was also significantly larger than Unitree’s. Open interest reached approximately $216 million before the IPO, while more than $150 million worth of contracts changed hands over a 24-hour period.
Unitree’s $29 million in open interest represents a considerably smaller pool of capital attempting to establish a pre-listing valuation.
Leverage Creates Additional Risks
The Unitree perpetual market also demonstrates the dangers of using leveraged crypto contracts to forecast stock prices.
Traders can use as much as 10 times leverage, meaning relatively small movements in the underlying price can trigger liquidations and rapidly close positions.
That risk was evident following Unitree’s listing. Funding for the contract fell to around negative 0.13%, indicating that traders betting on a decline were paying those positioned for further gains to maintain their positions.
The contrasting outcomes from SpaceX and Unitree highlight both the potential and limitations of crypto-based price discovery. SpaceX showed that a perpetual contract can closely approximate an IPO’s first-day pricing.
Unitree, meanwhile, demonstrated that crypto traders can correctly identify an undervalued IPO while still falling well short of the eventual market-clearing price.
