Markets remained subdued ahead of the July U.S. inflation report, with bitcoin holding near $64,000, oil hovering around $90 and Harmony dealing with a fresh exploit.
Crypto prices were largely unchanged on Wednesday as traders digested the security incident involving Harmony while awaiting the U.S. CPI release, a key economic indicator that can influence sentiment across risk assets.
Harmony, a layer-1 blockchain supporting DeFi applications and marketplaces, confirmed that its network had been exploited during the early Asian session. The attacker reportedly generated roughly 4 billion ONE tokens using empty blocks, equivalent to around 26% of the token’s circulating supply.
Approximately 2.8 billion of the newly created tokens were soon sent to exchanges, causing ONE to plunge as much as 40% and hit a record low.
Global markets were also relatively calm ahead of the July U.S. CPI figures, scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. Brent crude traded close to $90 a barrel after fresh Houthi attacks on shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and a U.S. strike on a vessel in the Gulf of Oman renewed concerns about potential supply disruptions.
Bitcoin showed little reaction to the developments, gaining 0.23% since midnight UTC to trade around $63,900. The Fear and Greed Index remained at 38.
Derivatives Positioning
Futures activity is stable, but market takers turn bearish:
Overall crypto futures activity has remained relatively flat, with only minor changes in trading volume and open interest. However, positioning data points to a shift in sentiment. Short trades now represent 51.36% of taker activity, reversing the bullish stance seen earlier in the week.
AVAX faces increasing short pressure:
Avalanche’s AVAX was among the weakest-performing large-cap tokens over the past 24 hours, while its open interest increased 6%. The combination of falling prices and rising OI indicates growing bearish pressure. Its 24-hour cumulative volume delta was also the most negative among major assets, suggesting traders are using market orders to aggressively establish short positions.
DOGE leverage continues to build:
Open interest in Dogecoin futures has climbed above 17.2 billion tokens, reaching its highest level since October. That compares with around 12 billion tokens in June. With DOGE still trading near $0.07, the buildup in leveraged positions alongside limited price movement could set the stage for a sharp volatility breakout.
Bitcoin and ether see limited trader participation:
Positioning remains relatively light in the two largest cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s open interest continues to sit below 750,000 BTC, extending a period of muted activity that has lasted several weeks. Ether is showing a similar pattern, indicating that both institutional and retail participants remain cautious.
Altcoins face broad selling pressure:
Negative 24-hour CVD readings are visible across most of the 25 largest cryptocurrencies, pointing to widespread selling. Chainlink, Cronos and Tron were among the few notable assets to avoid the broader negative trend.
Bitcoin volatility remains subdued before CPI:
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility measure, BVIV, slipped to 37.5% from Monday’s high of 38.66%. Short-term one-week volatility also remains depressed, suggesting options traders are not pricing in a major market reaction to the CPI report. The muted volatility could indicate that event risk is being underestimated.
$70,000 remains a key options target:
On Deribit, the $70,000 bitcoin call was the most actively traded option for a second consecutive day. Meanwhile, interest in BTC strangles has increased, indicating that some traders are positioning for a substantial move higher or lower rather than betting on a specific direction.
Token Activity
CRV leads weekly performance:
Curve’s CRV has gained about 35% over the past week and is trading around $0.28. The rally comes as the protocol prepares to implement a 15% annual reduction in token emissions. CRV has added more than 3% since midnight UTC.
UNI suffers a sharp decline:
Uniswap’s UNI fell more than 10% over the last 24 hours despite the absence of a clear catalyst. The move highlights how thin liquidity and limited market depth can leave altcoins exposed to sudden price swings.
XMR recovers Tuesday’s losses:
Monero’s XMR rose 5.8% since midnight UTC, reversing the entirety of its decline from Tuesday.
AI-related tokens turn higher:
NEAR, FET and TAO were among the gainers, advancing between 1.3% and 2.3%. The gains suggest interest in AI-focused crypto assets may be starting to recover after months of subdued sentiment.
