Bitcoin is holding near the $65,000 level as investors weigh improving macro signals against uncertainty around interest rates, inflation, and the broader risk environment. Comments from President Donald Trump on jobs, inflation, and a potential Strait of Hormuz agreement have boosted market sentiment, but Bitcoin’s next move will likely depend on whether falling oil prices lead to lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar.
U.S. jobless claims remain low
Weekly U.S. jobless claims increased slightly by 1,000 to 199,000 last week, beating economists’ expectations of 202,000.
The four-week average also declined to 198,750 from 203,250, showing that the labor market remains strong. Claims around the 200,000 level or below are generally viewed as a sign of continued employment stability.
Attention now turns to Friday’s July Nonfarm Payrolls report, which has recently shown more weakness than weekly claims suggested. Economists expect the U.S. economy to have added 80,000 jobs in July, up from 57,000 in June, while unemployment is projected to remain steady at 4.2%.
Warsh leaves door open for September rate hike
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly prepared to support another rate increase in September if inflation data remains stubborn and bond markets continue to weaken.
Since taking the role, Warsh has pushed for changes at the Fed, including reducing reliance on market guidance through signals, hints, and unofficial communication about future policy decisions.
His approach has faced criticism from some within the institution. A Financial Times report suggested that recent increases in interest rates were partly linked to uncertainty surrounding Warsh’s leadership, while others pointed to previous Fed decisions as a major contributor to current inflation challenges.
Sources close to Warsh said he recognized early missteps, including failing to clearly communicate his commitment to price stability and creating uncertainty about whether long-term Fed reforms would affect short-term policy.
However, he remains willing to raise rates if upcoming inflation data disappoints and bond markets experience further selling pressure.
SpaceX shares rise ahead of $100 billion unlock
SpaceX shares climbed 3.85% in premarket trading Thursday, recovering some losses after a sharp decline the previous session.
The rebound came as the company reached its first major lockup expiration, allowing up to 911.5 million insider shares valued at more than $100 billion to become available for trading.
The stock has already dropped more than 50% from its June high of $225 and is trading below its $135 IPO price, suggesting investors may have already priced in much of the expected selling pressure.
The focus now shifts to whether the market can absorb the additional supply without further declines.
Altcoins outperform Bitcoin
While Bitcoin has remained largely unchanged over the past week, several alternative cryptocurrencies have posted stronger gains.
MemeCore’s M token surged 24%, Pump.fun’s PUMP climbed 20%, and Cardano’s ADA gained 15% over seven days.
The moves suggest selective buying rather than a broad market recovery. Gains concentrated in meme-related assets also highlight that investors remain cautious despite renewed interest in certain parts of the crypto market.
Traders largely expect CLARITY Act delay
The crypto market has largely priced in a delay for the CLARITY Act, according to Joel Kruger, a market strategist at LMAX Group.
The proposed legislation would define crypto regulatory responsibilities in the U.S., dividing oversight between the SEC and CFTC while establishing rules for exchanges, issuers, and parts of the DeFi sector.
With the Senate nearing its August recess, expectations for approval have fallen significantly. Prediction markets have also sharply reduced the probability of the bill passing in 2026.
Kruger said regulatory clarity may still improve through agency action, with SEC Chair Paul Atkins signaling that guidance from regulators could provide an alternative path.
He highlighted $67,300 for Bitcoin and $2,000 for Ether as key technical levels. A breakout above those areas could indicate a stronger bullish phase.
SoftBank’s Intel gains show AI momentum remains strong
SoftBank reported better-than-expected quarterly results after a major gain from its investment in Intel helped offset weakness elsewhere.
The company posted ¥347.3 billion ($2.3 billion) in net income, supported by a ¥1.3 trillion ($8.5 billion) gain from Intel shares, which surged during the quarter.
The results indicate that AI-related investments are still generating returns, though those gains remain concentrated among a limited group of companies.
Bitcoin has continued to trade as a high-beta asset linked to broader technology and AI sentiment, benefiting when investor appetite for risk strengthens.
Coinbase expands U.K. stock trading
Coinbase has launched stock trading services for eligible users in the United Kingdom, allowing customers to trade selected U.S. equities alongside their crypto holdings.
The feature includes extended trading hours, commission-free transactions, and fractional shares, allowing investors to begin with smaller amounts. Users can fund accounts with either British pounds or USDC.
The rollout began on August 6, 2026, with access gradually becoming available to eligible customers.
Bitcoin ETFs see $626 million inflows
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $626 million in net inflows over three days, putting them on track for their strongest weekly performance since early May.
Analysts said continued ETF demand will be important for confirming a sustainable Bitcoin recovery.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus, said multiple consecutive days of inflows are needed to demonstrate a lasting return of institutional interest.
Bitcoin remains range-bound as macro optimism builds
Bitcoin traded near $64,830 on Thursday, gaining 0.8% over 24 hours and 1.3% over the week as the market remained stuck in a narrow range. Ether gained 2.1%, while most major cryptocurrencies saw limited movement.
Recent Bitcoin strength has been driven more by macro expectations than by fresh crypto demand.
Trump’s comments about strong employment, improving manufacturing data, cooling inflation, and a possible Strait of Hormuz deal have supported risk appetite.
A reopening of the route could push oil prices lower, reduce inflation concerns, and create room for Treasury yields and the dollar to decline—conditions that generally benefit risk assets like Bitcoin.
However, the bullish case depends on several factors aligning. Lower oil prices must lead to weaker inflation expectations, which would then need to translate into lower real yields and a softer dollar.
With Bitcoin closely tied to broader equity sentiment, movements in traditional markets may have more influence than crypto-specific factors in the near term.
Investors are watching real yields and the dollar closely. A decline in both alongside falling oil prices could help Bitcoin break above its current range, while persistent high yields may keep BTC trading near the $65,000 mark.
