Ether is leading bitcoin in recent gains, hinting at a potential shift toward altcoins, as easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran weigh on oil prices.
A renewed risk-on tone returned to markets after both countries refrained from further military action on Sunday, helping push crude prices lower.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has climbed back above $65,000, rising about 1.2% over the past day. Ether advanced more than 3% to near $1,950, while other major tokens such as Solana and XRP posted gains in the 1%–2% range.
WTI crude futures moved sharply lower on Monday, dropping around 5% to about $85, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures ticked up roughly 0.5%. Currency markets also reflected improved risk sentiment, with the Australian dollar and euro strengthening against the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. and Iran held off on further strikes for a second straight day, raising hopes for diplomatic progress. The conflict, which began in late February, briefly saw a fragile ceasefire in the second quarter before it quickly broke down.
Reports suggest Iran is willing to continue halting airstrikes as long as the U.S. does the same, marking a tentative step toward another possible peace effort.
“Markets are reacting to broader macro factors as well,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based exchange Giottus.
He noted that Brent crude’s 4.7% drop to $92.19 has helped ease inflation pressures, though the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 28–29 remains a key risk. Markets are currently pricing in a 36.3% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase.
Subburaj added that ether’s stronger performance suggests some capital rotation into altcoins, though bitcoin’s dominance at 58.6% indicates the shift is not yet widespread.
At the same time, some analysts are pointing to bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, suggesting the market may be approaching a bottom ahead of the next major uptrend.
Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of analytics firm Alphractal, noted that past cycles show roughly 900 days between each Bitcoin halving and the following bear market low. With the current cycle at about day 827, he believes bitcoin may already be forming a base, with a potential final bottom emerging within the next two months.
