Bitcoin has remained confined to a tight $59,000–$60,000 range all week, a pattern reminiscent of the consolidation seen in 2024. However, unlike that period, the current range is forming below key support levels within a broader downtrend, raising the risk that a breakdown could send prices toward $40,000.
BTC has traded within this narrow band for five consecutive days. While such sideways movement is typical, analysts warn that the context makes this instance more precarious.
During 2024, bitcoin spent months consolidating between $55,000 and $70,000, with occasional breakouts in both directions. The key difference now, according to FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich, is that the current range sits below prior support zones and under both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Both indicators are sloping downward, reinforcing a bearish structure and signaling continuation of the downtrend rather than a base for recovery.
Kuptsikevich described the setup as risky for bulls, noting that last year’s consolidation occurred during an uptrend, while the current one is forming in a declining market. If the range breaks to the downside, he sees the next meaningful support near $40,000.
On-chain data echoes this caution. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost has pointed to signs of capitulation among long-term holders, with investors beginning to sell at a loss. While this phase has historically marked potential buying opportunities, it often coincides with near-term downside pressure.
Market activity also reflects weak demand, with active addresses and transaction volumes staying near the lower end of recent ranges during the decline.
Additional strain is coming from Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. Its preferred stock, STRC, recently dropped to a record low near $71, while its common shares fell 25% over the week to their lowest level since February 2024.
The company has indicated it may sell over $1 billion worth of bitcoin to strengthen its balance sheet, a notable shift from founder Michael Saylor’s long-standing “never sell” stance. Management now has the authority to sell from reserves without requiring individual board approvals.
The potential for a large seller entering an already thin market is adding to investor concern. Meanwhile, macro conditions remain unsupportive, with a stronger U.S. dollar continuing to weigh on bitcoin and other dollar-denominated assets.
Bitcoin is on track to close the second quarter down roughly 13%, while U.S. equities are heading toward one of their strongest quarters in years, driven by optimism around AI-related spending. This divergence highlights a broader rotation of capital away from crypto and into traditional markets.
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