Here’s another rewritten version:
The weekend’s peace agreement provided the macro catalyst global markets had been waiting for, although crypto traders have grown increasingly skeptical of such headline-driven rallies.
The U.S.–Iran deal announced over the weekend broadly boosted risk sentiment across global assets.
Oil prices fell more than 4% after reports that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, while copper surged. Equity markets also rallied strongly, with MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index rising 3% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 reaching a record high.
Crypto markets, however, were more subdued. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) showed little change since midnight UTC, though it remained up 2.4% over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin traded just under $66,000, barely moving intraday after gaining roughly 3.4% over the weekend. Ether followed a similar pattern. Smaller altcoins outperformed relatively, with the CoinDesk 80 Index adding around 1.5%.
The muted response reflects growing skepticism among crypto traders toward geopolitically driven relief rallies. Previous ceasefires have failed—one in April collapsed and another was broken by U.S. strikes in early June—both of which erased earlier gains. As a result, traders are hesitant to fully price in the latest agreement ahead of its formal signing later in the week.
Although markets have stabilized after the early June selloff, sentiment remains divided. Some on-chain models suggest selling pressure is largely exhausted, while flow data indicates that meaningful demand has not fully returned. Both readings can still coexist in the current environment.
At the same time, crypto is facing strong competition for speculative capital. SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO surged 19% on debut, with ARK Invest, led by Bitcoin advocate Cathie Wood, among the most active buyers.
Upcoming listings from firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic highlight how investor attention is increasingly shifting toward AI and equity markets, drawing liquidity away from crypto.
Derivatives
Bitcoin derivatives positioning improved over the week. Open interest rose to $17.4 billion, an increase of about 7% week-on-week, while the three-month annualized basis edged up to 3.0% from 2.8%.
However, funding rates remained subdued, ranging from flat to roughly -4% annualized across major platforms, signaling limited demand for leveraged long exposure.
The mix of rising open interest and firmer basis suggests incremental institutional participation, but weak funding indicates a lack of strong directional conviction.
Options data remains mixed. The 24-hour put/call skew leaned toward puts at around 25/75, but volatility indicators show no broad stress. Deribit’s DVOL index eased to 39, down 3.4% on the day and near multi-year lows, while the implied volatility curve remains in contango rather than backwardation. This points to targeted hedging rather than widespread fear.
Coinglass recorded $343 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for 27% and shorts 73%. Bitcoin and Ethereum led losses with $136 million and $60 million in liquidations respectively.
Binance data highlights $66,100 as a key liquidation level if prices push higher.
Token Talk
Decentralized AI tokens rallied after the U.S. government ordered Anthropic to restrict foreign access to its most advanced models.
Venice (VVV) climbed about 14% to $16.37, with trading volume surging nearly 200% to roughly $130 million, according to CoinGecko data. Morpheus (MOR) gained around 21% to $2.28.
Anthropic said the Commerce Department required it to limit foreign access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models under export-control rules. The company temporarily disabled both models globally while keeping other systems active, describing the issue as a narrow compliance matter and saying it is working to reverse the misunderstanding.
Supporters of decentralized AI quickly used the move to reinforce their narrative. Venice founder Erik Voorhees framed it as validation of permissionless AI, while Morpheus supporters highlighted it as evidence of censorship resistance.
Venice provides access to open-source models through its VVV token, while Morpheus rewards contributors of computing power and code via MOR.
However, the rally appeared driven more by narrative than fundamentals. MOR’s 21% gain occurred on less than $300,000 in trading volume, and both projects rely on open-source models that are generally less capable than Anthropic’s restricted systems.
The move was primarily story-driven rather than based on technological progress.
