Bitcoin is facing pressure from a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, with oil-driven inflation concerns, Federal Reserve policy risk, and shifting expectations around AI demand all weighing on sentiment, according to market maker Enflux.
The cryptocurrency fell about 3% in Asian trading, holding near $77,000 as investors remain cautious ahead of a busy week of macroeconomic catalysts. The move reflects positioning uncertainty rather than a clear shift in broader market conviction.
In a note to CoinDesk, Singapore-based Enflux said traders are hesitant to bid bitcoin higher ahead of Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, followed by key data releases including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index. These reports will help shape expectations for potential rate cuts in the second half of the year.
Oil remains the dominant inflation driver. Brent crude trading above $100 continues to complicate the inflation outlook, limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to signal a more dovish stance.
Enflux added that markets are currently pricing two competing scenarios: geopolitical tensions may eventually ease, but not quickly enough to influence near-term monetary policy. As a result, expectations for a June rate cut have largely been removed, with prediction markets showing a strong consensus for no change and risk assets facing a more uncertain backdrop.
Bitcoin has struggled to regain key technical levels in this environment. It is trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700, a level often used to gauge marginal buyer strength. A move back above it would likely require clearer evidence that inflation pressures tied to oil are temporary.
Until then, Enflux expects bitcoin to remain range-bound into the upcoming data releases, with larger moves more likely driven by macroeconomic prints than the Fed decision itself.
Beyond the immediate macro picture, developments in artificial intelligence are adding a longer-term layer of uncertainty. Reports suggesting softer-than-expected revenue at OpenAI have raised questions about the pace of AI demand growth.
This matters for bitcoin because publicly listed mining companies have increasingly taken on debt and sold portions of their bitcoin holdings to finance a shift toward AI data center infrastructure, a business viewed as more profitable than traditional mining.
If AI demand slows, it could eventually reduce this miner-driven selling pressure by limiting expansion plans. However, any impact on bitcoin supply dynamics would likely take time to materialize.
In the near term, weaker sentiment in technology and semiconductor stocks could weigh on crypto markets, while any easing of miner selling pressure would be a slower-moving offset.
Overall, Enflux says bitcoin remains caught between competing macro forces, with inflation, rates, and AI uncertainty combining to keep the market in a narrow, wait-and-see range.
