Bitcoin has dropped back toward $68,000, sliding into its February trading range after a weekend selloff driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and a rotation into commodities.
The largest cryptocurrency is changing hands near $68,250, retreating after multiple failed attempts to break above $75,000 and revisiting levels last seen earlier this year.
The move lower followed renewed escalation in the Iran war, after Donald Trump warned of potential strikes on Iran’s power infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened—prompting a broader risk-off tone.
CME gap becomes key level
The weekend decline resulted in a CME gap, created when bitcoin futures close on Friday and reopen Sunday at a different price. A rebound toward $70,000 would fill that gap, putting the level in sharp focus for traders.
In traditional markets, Gold and silver extended losses, suggesting January’s rally may have been driven more by speculative excess than lasting safe-haven demand.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index has climbed back above 100, supported by persistent inflation concerns and fading expectations for interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Altcoins weaken, longs flushed
Altcoins continue to lag behind bitcoin, with DeFi tokens such as ETHFI, HYPE and SKY declining roughly 3% since midnight UTC, even as BTC stabilizes following the weekend drop.
Over $400 million in leveraged crypto positions have been liquidated in the past 24 hours, including more than $280 million in long positions—the largest wipeout since late February—highlighting the pressure on bullish bets.
Open interest in tokenized gold futures like PAXG has risen 4%, pointing to a shift of capital into commodities. By comparison, Ethereum futures open interest has seen only marginal gains.
On Hyperliquid, commodity-linked perpetual contracts tied to crude oil, gold and silver have climbed into the top ranks by open interest, surpassing major crypto assets such as XRP and underscoring the shift in trader focus.
Sentiment mixed as volatility rises
Funding rates reflect a divided market. Bearish positioning is building across several altcoins—including XRP, BNB, SOL, TRX, DOGE and ADA—while BTC and select tokens like BCH and LINK continue to see positive funding, indicating pockets of strength.
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has risen to 60%, up from 53% last week, signaling growing uncertainty. Ether’s volatility has surged even higher, reaching 84%, its highest level since early February.
Options markets also point to caution. On Deribit, bitcoin put options are trading at a premium to calls, reflecting strong demand for downside protection. Block trades show increased interest in bearish setups and volatility-focused strategies.
Sector divergence
In spot markets, DeFi tokens are leading losses, with CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index down 0.75% on the day, while broader altcoin and meme indices are also slightly lower.
In contrast, privacy-focused tokens such as DASH, NIGHT and XMR have gained between 3% and 5%, supported by improving sentiment and clearer regulatory developments.
CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index stands at 49, slightly below last week’s level but well above last month’s lows, indicating a more balanced market backdrop.
At the same time, the average relative strength index (RSI) across altcoins has slipped into oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a near-term rebound.
For now, bitcoin remains range-bound, with traders watching whether it can reclaim $70,000 and fill the CME gap, or if macro headwinds will continue to weigh on prices.
