Bitcoin is showing early signs of reclaiming strength against gold, with the BTC-to-gold ratio rebounding toward 16 ounces after a steep drawdown earlier in the cycle.
As March nears its end, bitcoin is just about holding on to monthly gains, up roughly 2% and trading above $68,000. Still, the risk of a historic streak remains. A late decline would mark six consecutive monthly losses—matching the longest run of negative closes recorded between August 2018 and January 2019.
Long-term support remains intact
The 200-week moving average (200WMA) continues to be a key technical level. This long-term trend indicator, which averages prices over the past 200 weeks, has historically acted as strong support during bear markets.
In the current cycle, the 200WMA sits near $59,000. Bitcoin briefly tested this level in early February, dropping to around $60,000, but has since held above it for nearly two months. That stability suggests the level remains a firm support zone. The 2022 bear market stands out as the only period when BTC spent an extended time below the 200WMA.
Bitcoin strengthens versus gold
Beyond its dollar performance, bitcoin is beginning to outperform Gold. The BTC-to-gold ratio is on track to post its first positive monthly close in eight months, currently hovering around 16 ounces.
Gold is trading near $4,200 after recently dipping toward $4,000, marking a roughly 5% daily decline. The metal is now down more than 25% from its January peak, erasing an estimated $7.5 trillion in market value.
Historically, each cycle has seen progressively smaller drawdowns in the bitcoin-to-gold ratio. In this cycle, BTC declined about 71% against gold from its December 2024 high. These peak-to-trough moves have typically lasted around 400 days, suggesting the current downturn in the ratio may be nearing its end.
Trend outlook
If bitcoin can continue to hold above its 200-week moving average while improving its relative performance against gold, it would reinforce the view that the broader uptrend remains intact despite recent volatility.
