Bitcoin’s strong rebound from last weekend stalled after touching $74,000, with the cryptocurrency slipping back below $71,000 as buying momentum waned.
By mid-day Thursday in East Asia, bitcoin was trading around $70,987, down about 2.2% over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency had surged from a war-driven low near $64,000 on Saturday to $74,000 on Thursday — a roughly 15% gain in five days — but has since given back about a third of that advance.
Technical analysts point to key resistance levels for the pause. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, said bitcoin ran into the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and just below the 50-day moving average, both levels known to attract selling in bear-market rallies.
The 61.8% Fibonacci level reflects a recovery of around two-thirds of a previous decline, historically a point where rallies often lose momentum. The 50-day moving average represents the average closing price over the past 50 days, acting as a break-even line where investors frequently take profits. With both indicators converging near $74,000, the area became a technically crowded zone.
Kuptsikevich added that the surge was partly driven by a short squeeze, as bearish traders were forced to cover positions. “Bulls still need to convince the market that the bear phase is over,” he said.
Bitunix analysts observed a similar pattern. The push to $74,000 triggered concentrated short liquidations, while long leverage clusters remain near $70,000. Secondary liquidity pools are located around $64,000, creating a clear range for the next move.
Despite the retracement, weekly performance for major cryptocurrencies remains solid. Bitcoin is up 5.4% over the past seven days, Ether gained 2.7% to $2,080, BNB added 3.1% to $648, and Solana rose 2.1% to $88.39. Among laggards, Dogecoin fell 3.7%, while XRP was essentially flat with a 0.2% decline.
The macro environment remains challenging. Asia’s benchmark equities, tracked by MSCI, have dropped 6.4% since the Iran conflict escalated, on course for their worst weekly performance since March 2020. The U.S. dollar is set for its strongest week since November 2024, while oil prices are posting their largest weekly surge since 2022 — conditions that typically weigh on crypto rallies.
Friday brought some relief as Asian equities recovered early losses, the dollar softened, and crude prices eased on reports that the U.S. is exploring options to mitigate rising energy costs.
Geopolitical risks remain unresolved. The United States Senate failed to block ongoing military action against Iran, leaving the duration and economic impact of the conflict uncertain. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said operations could last three to eight weeks, while disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to pressure energy markets.
For bitcoin, the $70,000 level — which acted as resistance over the past month — now serves as a critical support test. Holding above it could confirm the recent breakout, while a failure to do so may put the $64,000 floor back in play.
