Standard Chartered has downgraded its near-term and 2026 outlook for cryptocurrencies, warning that continued ETF redemptions and macroeconomic strain could push prices lower before a sustainable rebound begins.
The bank now forecasts bitcoin could decline toward $50,000 in the coming months, while ether may drop to around $1,400 before finding a durable floor. At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $67,900 and ether around $1,980.
Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research, said the recent slide may not be over. Many investors in crypto exchange-traded funds are currently sitting on losses, making them more inclined to cut exposure than to add positions during pullbacks.
Although Kendrick expects a recovery once the market stabilizes, he has reduced his year-end 2026 price targets across major assets. The bank now sees bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of next year, down from a prior forecast of $150,000. Ether’s target was lowered to $4,000 from $7,500. Estimates for other large-cap tokens were also trimmed: solana to $135 from $250, BNB to $1,050 from $1,755, and AVAX to $18 from $100.
Crypto markets have weakened sharply in early 2026, with bitcoin down nearly 23% since the start of the year and well below its late-2025 highs. The broader market has faced elevated volatility and significant liquidations of leveraged positions, contributing to a steep decline in overall market capitalization.
Digital assets have also shown increased correlation with softer equity markets as global growth concerns and uncertainty around interest-rate policy weigh on risk appetite. Investors have rotated toward traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, while limited regulatory progress in the U.S. and liquidity pressures at certain institutions have further dampened sentiment and trading activity.
Kendrick noted that bitcoin ETF holdings have fallen by nearly 100,000 BTC from their October 2025 peak. With the average ETF entry price around $90,000, many investors are holding unrealized losses of approximately 25%, raising the likelihood of additional outflows.
Macroeconomic conditions provide limited near-term support. Although U.S. economic data shows signs of slowing, markets are not pricing in interest-rate cuts before Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Federal Reserve chair in mid-June, reducing expectations for immediate policy relief.
Even so, Standard Chartered emphasized that the current downturn appears less severe than previous crypto bear markets. At its February low, bitcoin was down roughly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high, with about half of circulating supply still in profit — a significant correction, but not as extreme as prior cycles.
Notably, this cycle has not been accompanied by the collapse of major crypto firms, unlike the failures of Terra/Luna and FTX in 2022. Kendrick said that resilience signals a maturing asset class.
The bank maintained its long-term projections, keeping its end-2030 targets unchanged at $500,000 for bitcoin and $40,000 for ether, citing continued adoption and structural growth drivers underpinning the market.
