Bitcoin drifts lower as on-chain data signals fading demand
On-chain metrics point to weakening demand and tightening liquidity, while prediction markets show little expectation of near-term Fed rate cuts.
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Bitcoin opened the Asian session with bear-market signals, hovering in the mid-$70,000s as global equities search for direction.
CryptoQuant’s latest report frames the weakness as structural rather than cyclical. Its Bull Score Index sits at zero, and Bitcoin trades far below its October peak, reflecting a thinner buyer base and tighter liquidity.
Glassnode data shows weak spot volumes and a demand vacuum, indicating fading participation rather than panic-driven selling.
Institutional flows confirm the trend. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, net buyers a year ago, are now net sellers, creating a year-over-year demand gap of tens of thousands of BTC. The Coinbase premium has stayed negative since October, signaling muted U.S. investor activity. Historically, strong U.S. spot demand has fueled bull runs—currently, that engine is idle.
Liquidity is also tightening. Stablecoin expansion has stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023. Longer-term demand growth has collapsed, suggesting declining participation rather than just leverage. Bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with major support clustered between $60,000 and $70,000.
Macro conditions weigh on the market. Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like high-beta software rather than digital gold. Prediction markets expect the Fed to hold rates in April, with only modest bets for a June cut, limiting near-term liquidity relief.
Political developments add complexity. President Trump recently stated that a Fed chair seeking rate hikes “would not have gotten the job,” tempering optimism about central bank independence.
In Asia, markets are defined less by shocks than absence, with occasional bounces possible but conviction thin.
Market Moves
- BTC: Drifted to the mid-$70,000s, with rebounds fading amid thin spot demand and pressured tech stocks.
- ETH: Hovered just above the low $2,000s, struggling for momentum as risk sentiment softened.
- Gold: Rebounded toward $5,000–$5,100 amid safe-haven buying after U.S.–Iran tensions and weaker payroll data, as traders reassessed Fed expectations.
- Nikkei 225: Fell roughly 0.3%, with chip and tech leaders tracking Wall Street, though broader Japanese equities held up relatively well versus regional peers.
