Bitcoin Falls Below $78K as Analysts Signal More Downside Ahead
Bitcoin plunged below $78,000 over the weekend, its lowest level since April, triggering fresh liquidations as liquidity thinned and new buyers remained scarce.
Traders told CoinDesk that rallies once fueled by corporate demand, notably Strategy’s (MSTR) Bitcoin purchases, have lost momentum, leaving markets vulnerable to forced selling and derivative liquidations.
Saturday’s decline fits a broader bearish trend. Eric Crown, former NYSE Arca options trader, has maintained since late October that Bitcoin is in a sideways-to-downside phase. He warns that hopes for a return to new highs—or a rotation from metals back into crypto—represent misplaced “hopium” for bulls.
“It’s been my view since the end of October that BTC is in a sideways and downside phase… I do not think 80K is a macro low for Bitcoin,” Crown, who updates over 200,000 subscribers on market trends, told CoinDesk.
The options market reflects growing bearish sentiment. Traders increasingly bet on Bitcoin falling below $75,000 while abandoning $100,000 calls. On Deribit, $75,000 puts now hold $1.159 billion in open interest, nearly matching the $1.168 billion tied to $100,000 calls.
Technical indicators add to the caution. The monthly MACD crossed down in November, historically preceding extended downturns, while the weekly 21 vs. 55 EMA recently turned bearish, often followed by multi-month losses. The 2025 yearly chart also closed as a “shooting star,” signaling a medium-term reversal.
Bitcoin has diverged from traditional markets since October, declining while equities held steady—a pattern Crown identifies as late-cycle risk-off behavior. “People generally sell the more speculative assets first,” he said.
The aftermath of October’s $19 billion crash wiped out many leveraged altcoin positions, leaving traders hesitant to re-enter at elevated levels.
Crown suggests Bitcoin could fall further, potentially into the mid-$50,000 to low-$60,000 range, before stabilizing. He sees this zone as a potential value-accumulation opportunity rather than an end to crypto’s broader cycle.
