Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Expects Sideways Bitcoin Before $6.5 Million Long-Term Target
Following a volatile 2025, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects bitcoin to trade sideways in early 2026, while institutional interest grows and central banks begin exploring the asset.
Short-Term Range: $75K–$100K
Hougan predicts bitcoin will remain in the $75,000 to $100,000 range for the first half of the year. “There’s still a lot of Bitcoin for sale around $100,000,” he said, citing options-market positioning. He expects a stronger breakout later in 2026 as regulatory clarity improves and macro risks settle.
Precious Metals Highlight Bitcoin’s Appeal
Gold’s rally signals global concerns about fiat currencies and potential asset seizure, while silver looks like a late-stage momentum trade, similar to speculative altcoins. Over time, Hougan expects these dynamics to drive demand toward bitcoin as a superior form of self-custody and settlement.
Central Banks Are Watching
Bitwise has met with central banks across multiple regions. Most questions focus on bitcoin’s security and risk profile rather than technical adoption. Hougan believes central banks will eventually hold bitcoin—potentially more than gold—but adoption is likely 10 to 20 years away.
Long-Term Outlook: $6.5 Million Bitcoin
Hougan reiterated his long-term projection that bitcoin could reach $6.5 million per coin over the next two decades, assuming continued global debt growth, money printing, and currency debasement. “As long as the future isn’t dramatically different from the last 15 years,” he said, “we get there.”
Institutional Adoption and Volatility
Lower volatility is key for institutional uptake. Hougan highlighted that bitcoin is now less volatile than stocks like Nvidia and expects this trend to continue while bitcoin remains the fastest-growing major financial asset.
Looking Ahead
While regulatory clarity could accelerate the next bull phase, it isn’t required for crypto’s long-term trajectory. ETFs, stablecoins, and tokenization are expected to keep expanding. “The fundamentals are strong,” Hougan said. “The stars are aligned for a strong 2026.”
