Ark Invest said expanding institutional adoption of bitcoin and accelerating asset tokenization are driving digital assets toward mainstream scale, with the sector’s value potentially reaching tens of trillions of dollars by the end of the decade.
In its Big Ideas 2026 report, the asset manager said blockchain technology, clearer regulation and growing institutional participation are converging to transform digital assets from a speculative market into core financial infrastructure.
Ark described the shift as structural rather than incremental, arguing that bitcoin, smart contract platforms and tokenized real-world assets are scaling faster than prevailing expectations.
The firm highlighted bitcoin’s rise as an institutional asset class. It said U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds and public companies increased their combined bitcoin holdings to around 12% of total supply in 2025, up from less than 9% a year earlier. Over the same period, bitcoin outperformed most major cryptocurrencies and broader crypto indexes on a risk-adjusted basis, while drawdowns from all-time highs became more contained.
Ark expects bitcoin to remain the dominant digital asset by market value. The firm estimated that bitcoin and smart contract networks together could grow at an annualized rate of roughly 60% to about $28 trillion by 2030, with bitcoin accounting for approximately 70% of that total.
The report forecast bitcoin’s market capitalization could rise from roughly $2 trillion today to around $16 trillion by the end of the decade, driven by its role as “digital gold” and increasing institutional participation.
Ark also pointed to stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets as key catalysts for broader adoption. It said improving regulatory clarity in the U.S. has prompted financial institutions to revisit stablecoin issuance and tokenization strategies, helping push stablecoin transaction volumes to levels that rival or exceed major traditional payment networks.
Tokenized U.S. Treasuries, commodities and, eventually, equities were cited as early indicators of a broader migration of financial assets onto public blockchains. While the tokenized asset market remains small today, Ark projected it could exceed $11 trillion by 2030 as sovereign debt, bank deposits and public equities increasingly move on-chain.
The firm added that decentralized finance platforms and crypto-native issuers are narrowing the gap with traditional fintechs in assets under management, revenue efficiency and institutional relevance.
Taken together, Ark said these trends point to a future in which public blockchains underpin money, contracts and ownership at global scale. While adoption is unlikely to be linear, the firm said investors and institutions that recognize the transition early may be better positioned as digital assets become a more integral part of the financial system.
