Bitcoin Weakens as Demand Fades, Traders Eye $85K
Bitcoin is showing signs of a softer market structure as the steady buying that supported prices earlier this year begins to wane. According to CryptoQuant, the cycle’s core demand wave has largely passed, with ETF accumulation slowing, Treasury-company purchases disappearing, and Strategy buys dropping to their lowest levels of the year.
While this does not indicate an imminent crash, upside potential is increasingly constrained, with rallies likely to stall below the 365-day moving average until a new wave of demand emerges.
Polymarket traders reflect this caution, assigning the highest probability to a retest of $85,000 and giving little weight to upside scenarios.
Defensive Signals Across Markets
Glassnode highlights that short-term holders are realizing losses at the fastest pace since the FTX period. ETF flows remain negative, and derivatives markets have shifted into risk-off mode, with options traders favoring puts and implied volatility rising.
The Active Investor cost basis near $88,600 is the next critical level. A sustained drop below this point would put recent investors into losses for the first time this cycle, signaling growing bearish momentum. The True Market Mean around $82,000 represents the next key support, where a mild bearish phase could transition into a bear market structure similar to 2022–2023.
The coming weeks will determine whether buyers can reassert control or if the downturn deepens further.
Market Snapshot
- Bitcoin (BTC): Trading near $92,000 after briefly dipping below $90,000 earlier this week.
- Ether (ETH): Around $3,038, modestly lower, mirroring Bitcoin’s cautious tone.
- Gold: Near $4,067, after an intraday high of $4,132 amid rising risk aversion.
- Nikkei 225: Up 3.7% Thursday, boosted by strong Nvidia earnings and gains in chip stocks.
Crypto Highlights
- Samourai Wallet Co-Founder Bill Hill sentenced to four years for unlicensed money transmitting (CoinDesk).
- New Hampshire unveils $100 million Bitcoin-collateralized municipal bond (Decrypt).
- Bullish reports Q3 profits after adding options and U.S. spot trading (CoinDesk).
