Many bitcoin traders have noticed the same frustrating pattern: the cryptocurrency seems to absorb the full force of equity sell-offs but rarely enjoys the upside when stocks bounce. Recent market action confirms that this imbalance is very real.
For months, bitcoin has shown a lopsided relationship with the Nasdaq 100. When the tech index weakens, BTC tends to slide even more. But when equities rebound, the crypto market often fails to follow. This week played out no differently. The Nasdaq fell 2% on Thursday, triggering a bitcoin drop roughly twice as large. Yet Friday’s modest equity rebound saw little reaction from BTC.
As the final stretch of 2025 approaches, the Nasdaq 100 is up 20% year-to-date. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is hanging onto just a 3% gain.
The Issue Isn’t Correlation — It’s Asymmetry
According to Wintermute researcher Jasper De Maere, bitcoin’s behavior isn’t due to a fading link with stocks. The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq remains near 0.8. Instead, the challenge is asymmetric performance.
“This isn’t a breakdown of correlation, but a reflection of asymmetry, the uneven way BTC responds to risk,” De Maere said. “When equities rally, BTC’s reaction is muted. When they sell off, BTC tends to move more sharply in the same direction.”
De Maere tracks this using “performance skew,” a metric that captures whether bitcoin outperforms during risk-on periods (positive skew) or underperforms during risk-off ones (negative skew).
His study shows skew has been negative for an extended period. On a 365-day rolling basis, the percentage of days where bitcoin displays positive skew versus the Nasdaq has dropped to levels last seen during the late-2022 market bottom.
A mix of factors is contributing: traders’ speculative appetite shifting into equities, slowing ETF inflows, flat stablecoin supply growth, and weaker liquidity across exchanges compared to early 2024.
A Potential Turning Point
Despite the pessimistic tone, De Maere argues the signal could be constructive.
“Historically, this kind of negative asymmetry doesn’t appear near tops but rather shows up near bottoms,” he noted. “When BTC falls harder on bad equity days than it rises on good ones, it usually signals exhaustion, not strength.”
In his view, the current BTC–Nasdaq skew reflects a market that’s worn out — a condition that has often preceded major reversals in bitcoin’s previous cycles.
