Bitcoin’s ‘Moonvember’ Myth Fades Under the Data
November 3, 2025
For years, traders have celebrated November as Bitcoin’s most bullish month — a phenomenon dubbed “Moonvember” for its history of strong gains. But the data tells a more nuanced story than the meme suggests.
According to CoinGlass’s Bitcoin Monthly Returns heat map, Bitcoin’s average November gain between 2013 and 2025 stands at roughly 42.5%, the highest of any month. On the surface, that supports the “Moonvember” narrative. Yet, the average is distorted by one dramatic outlier — 2013, when Bitcoin soared 449% in a single month at the height of its first major bull run.
Removing that anomaly reveals a very different picture: the median November return drops to just 8.8%, suggesting that while positive Novembers are common, explosive rallies are not the norm.
The month’s history also includes several sharp declines: -36.6% in 2018, -17.3% in 2019, -7.1% in 2021, and -16.2% in 2022. In contrast, strong performances in 2020 (+43%) and 2024 (+37.3%) remind traders that November can still surprise to the upside. This year’s modest +0.5% gain adds to the mixed pattern.
Analysts caution against treating seasonality as a signal. While “Moonvember” has cultural weight in crypto circles, they note that historical averages don’t predict future price action. Instead, traders tend to look for confirmation through price structure, volume, and broader market momentum — not just the calendar.
