Coinbase Q3 Earnings: Analysts Expect Beat but Clash on Long-Term Prospects
Wall Street remains divided on how much future value Coinbase can unlock from Base and stablecoin yields.
Coinbase (COIN) is poised to post stronger-than-expected results when it reports third-quarter earnings after Thursday’s close, with analysts broadly forecasting a revenue beat — but disagreeing sharply on what lies ahead.
FactSet consensus points to earnings per share of $1.14 and revenue of $1.8 billion, up from $0.28 and $1.2 billion in the same quarter last year.
Analysts at JPMorgan, Barclays, and Compass Point all highlight upside from USDC yields, staking rewards, and higher trading activity. Yet their takes on profitability and long-term strategy vary widely.
JPMorgan’s Kenneth Worthington holds the most bullish view, upgrading Coinbase to Overweight with a $404 price target by December 2026. He sees major upside if Coinbase launches a Base token, estimating it could reach a $12 billion–$34 billion valuation and add $14–$42 per share in equity value. Worthington also expects additional income from Coinbase One, which limits stablecoin yield access to paying subscribers.
Barclays’ Benjamin Budish remains more cautious, maintaining an Equal Weight rating. He expects adjusted EBITDA to exceed consensus by roughly 6%, supported by retail trading strength and higher USDC interest income. His estimates put transaction revenue at $1.05 billion and subscription and services revenue at $771 million, both above guidance. Budish trimmed his price target to $361 from $365 amid overall market multiple compression.
Compass Point’s Ed Engel stays bearish with a Sell rating. While he expects a modest beat, Engel warns that the company’s growing dependence on subscription and staking revenues could pressure margins. He also sees limited upside from the Deribit acquisition, citing tough competition from regulated derivatives venues like CBOE.
Where all three agree is on USDC’s growing importance. Coinbase’s partnership with Circle (CRCL) continues to bolster earnings, but analysts differ on how much of that profit Coinbase can retain as it reconfigures reward structures and expands premium tiers.
With the company deepening its focus on subscriptions, Layer-2 infrastructure, and derivatives, Thursday’s results will offer a clear gauge of near-term execution — and a preview of which version of Coinbase’s future Wall Street finds most credible.
