MicroStrategy’s $18B Market Value Drop May Set Up Recovery, Says 10x Research
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has seen nearly $18 billion wiped off its market capitalization as weakening sentiment and the collapse of its net asset value premium dragged the stock lower. But according to 10x Research’s Markus Thielen, the correction could be nearing its end.
In a report released Wednesday, Thielen said the stock’s recent pullback may offer a buying opportunity, with upcoming third-quarter earnings and renewed speculation around S&P 500 inclusion acting as potential catalysts for recovery.
“At today’s price, with the NAV premium gone and volatility picking up, MicroStrategy appears attractively valued — potentially offering better upside than bitcoin itself,” Thielen wrote.
MicroStrategy shares slipped another 1.8% to below $280, leaving the company’s market cap roughly in line with the value of its bitcoin holdings — a sharp reversal from late 2024, when speculative premiums had driven the stock far above its intrinsic worth.
Despite a 40% drop since July, Thielen said sentiment now appears “washed out.” He expects the company to post about $3.6 billion in profit from mark-to-market gains on its bitcoin holdings when it reports earnings Thursday.
Thielen estimates a 60–70% chance that MicroStrategy could be added to the S&P 500 by December, potentially drawing up to $28 billion in passive and active inflows — similar to surges seen after Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) joined the index.
“Capitulation always feels final — until it quietly marks a new beginning,” Thielen concluded.
