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Historical Data Points to Bitcoin Narrowing the Gap as It Trails the S&P 500

Bitcoin Lags Gold and S&P 500, but Historical Patterns Suggest a Catch-Up

Bitcoin has recently underperformed as gold and U.S. equities continue to climb. Gold surged past $3,800 per ounce, setting another record, while the S&P 500 remains just below 6,700, highlighting a divergence between crypto and traditional markets.

Despite trading under $115,000, Bitcoin remains in a bullish trend, though it has periodically lagged the S&P 500:

  • March–July 2024: S&P 500 rose from 4,000 to 4,600, while BTC fell from under $30,000 to $25,000.
  • April–October 2024: S&P 500 climbed 5,200 to 6,000, while BTC only resumed its rally in November.

Since May 2025, Bitcoin has consolidated between $110,000–$120,000, even as the S&P 500 advanced. Analysts suggest that such historical divergences often precede a catch-up phase for Bitcoin, signaling potential upside ahead.

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